A “record” turnout in advance polling suggests North Cowichan residents understand the critical importance of Saturday’s municipal byelection.

Based on how the six current councillors are expected to vote in the byelection, it could come down to a race between Joanna Lord and Becky Hogg — with the winner claiming a pivotal seat on council.

Christopher Justice and Chris Istace each have Lord election signs on their properties. And while Mayor Rob Douglas is not coming out publicly in support of any candidate, his political background makes Lord an obvious choice.

On the other hand, Hogg is publicly supported by councillors Tek Manhas, Bruce Findlay and Mike Caljouw.

There are major differences between Lord and Hogg on several issues, including the pace of development and the Municipal Forest Reserve.

Lord, an adult basic education instructor at Vancouver Island University, supports the 2022 Official Community Plan, which sets limits on urban growth. She would have voted against a council decision Nov. 20 to amend the OCP and allow major new development north of Herd Road in the Bell McKinnon area. Staff had strongly recommended council not approve the amendment.

Lord will also honour the consultation process into the future of the 5,000-hectare forest reserve — part of the rarest and most endangered forest type in BC.

“I will respect the will of North Cowichan residents who clearly stated they want a greater focus on conservation in the municipal forest,” Lord said.

The public voted 76 per cent in favour of conservation management of the forest reserve; a parallel process with First Nations is scheduled to result in a co-management agreement in one year.

Lord has played up her extensive political experience with the NDP, although this is her first time running for office. Hogg, also a first-timer, told an all-candidates meeting: “I’m really not super prepared for the byelection, but I’ve done a lot of research….”

Hogg supports ever more development and less red tape — even as senior municipal staff warn of a looming development crisis. Modelling suggests infrastructure capacity can handle 4,200 units, but current development applications exceed 10,000 units.

Listen to the full staff report at the 1:03:20 mark in this municipal video: https://pub-northcowichan.escribemeetings.com/Players/ISIStandAlonePlayer.aspx?Id=785f568b-b74d-45db-b724-3e06b6335204

Hogg, the co-owner of a hair salon, claims that more housing and development will result in lower property taxes. “If you’re in a bus, and you’re with 20 people and the bus is $400, you put more people on that and it’s going to break down that price.”

The Vancouver Sun has been publishing a series on this very issue and comes to a very different conclusion. The latest article by reporter Douglas Todd, published April 5, carries the headline: ‘Property taxes hammer BC’s fastest-growing cities; developers not charged enough to pay for amenities, municipal officials say.’

The article cites, among other cities, the Victoria suburb of Langford — the second-fastest growing municipality in Canada — where “property taxes have jumped a staggering 38 per cent in three years.”

https://www.sixmountains.ca/article/c38371fb-ee4d-4e39-a07c-9617153efa7a

Hogg also supports revisiting the forest reserve decisions.