NDP leading in Cowichan Valley riding, according to electoral projection by 338Canada
Greens point to ‘groundswell of support’ in final week of election campaign
NDP candidate Debra Toporowski is leading the Conservatives and Greens in the provincial riding of Cowichan Valley, according to a media website specializing in electoral projections.
As of October 12, 338Canada has Toporowski taking 40 per cent of the vote compared with 31 per cent for Green candidate Cammy Lockwood and 29 per cent for Conservative John Koury.
While the projections for Cowichan Valley have a margin of error of six per cent, 338Canada says its projections proved 88.5-per-cent accurate across 87 ridings in the 2020 BC election.
Meanwhile, Jared Qwustenuxun Williams, a high-profile member of Cowichan Tribes and an “Indigenous foods educator,” has come out in support of Lockwood and Toporowski.
“Our house is certainly divided on who to vote for,” Williams said in a Facebook post. “I am a long time staunch green voter, but my partner is strategically voting for the NDP to ensure the Cons don't get in, and that's definitely on my mind.
“Vote for the Green and the Orange, and let's get back to work pulling this canoe forward together.”
Created by Philippe Fournier, physics and astrophysics professor at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal, 338Canada employs a “statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history, and demographic data.”
Fournier is also a political columnist for L'actualité magazine and a contributor to Politico Canada, as well as an occasional panelist for CTV Montreal, Noovo, and Radio-Canada.
338Canada projections have been quoted in publications such as The Globe and Mail, The National Post, and The Vancouver Sun.
The provincial riding of Cowichan Valley was first contested in 2009.
The NDP’s Bill Routley held the seat from 2009 to 2017, when the Green’s Sonia Furstenau won election. She became leader of the Green Party in 2020 and was re-elected later that same year. This election she is running in Victoria-Beacon Hill riding.
338Canada — a reference to 338 electoral districts in Canada, since increased to 343 — does not list vote projections for former BC United candidate Jon Coleman (now an unaffiliated candidate) and independent socialist Eden Haythornthwaite.
BC United folded its election campaign on August 28 to give the Conservatives a better chance of defeating the NDP.
Coleman says that decision amounted to throwing candidates like him under the bus. His campaign as an unaffiliated candidate got off to a slow start, but more of his election signs are now appearing in the riding.
More background:
Coleman: https://www.votebcunited.ca/news/jon-coleman-announced-as-bc-united-candidate-for-cowichan-valley/
Haythornthwaite: https://www.cowichansocialist24.ca/
Koury: https://www.conservativebc.ca/johnkoury
Lockwood: https://bcgreens2024.ca/your-candidates/cammy-lockwood/
Toporowski: https://debratoporowski.bcndp.ca/
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— Larry Pynn, Oct. 13, 2024
